This is written as President Trump is returning to the United States – and I fully recognize that any minute after it’s published that something may emerge – from him or from anywhere – totally reversing our perceptions of what occurred. But life and attention spans are short, so we gotta go on what we see.
He enjoyed Saudi hospitality, is willing to forgive their Islam, and clearly appreciated the $110 billion in new military contracts he is bringing home. Moreover, he seems to believe the Saudis and most Arab states want very much to make peace with Israel (actually, there’s little doubt that’s true). And Bibi Netanyahu would very much like to make peace with them so long as they agree not to mention the P-word. But as alienated as Arab leaders are from their populations, they do recognize that the emergence of some recognizable sort of Palestinian state is an absolute prerequisite for normalizing their ties with Israel. Trump actually seems to get that, even if Bibi doesn’t. Of course, Bibi has to deal with a cynical population, much of which has long since written of the Palestinians as a negotiating partner. But Trump, as the quintessence of not-Obama, may conceivably be able to push Bibi in ways that Obama could only dream of. That is unlikely but we don’t know. No possible scrutiny of Trump’s words will reveal that; we will have to wait and see. I consider it conceivable – but barely; I would be shocked, astonished, and happy if that indeed plays out, but I won’t waste any time or energy expecting it.